1. Climate Change ImpactThe Central Highlands—the heart of Vietnam’s coffee belt—faces rising temperatures and water scarcity. Studies suggest yields could decline by up to 20% by 2030 if adaptation measures are not implemented (FAO, 2024).
2. Farmer LivelihoodsDespite record export revenues, many farmers struggle with low margins. Input costs, limited access to credit, and lack of training hinder long-term sustainability.
3. Trade RegulationsStricter import standards, particularly from the EU’s sustainability regulations, demand significant investment in compliance. Failure to adapt could limit market access.
Strategic Pathways for the Industry
- Diversify Coffee Varieties: Encourage arabica cultivation and invest in specialty coffee segments.
- Promote Sustainable Farming: Scale up farmer training programs on water efficiency, organic farming, and agroforestry.
- Expand Processing Capabilities: Develop instant coffee, RTD, and premium roasted lines to capture higher margins.
- Strengthen Farmer-Exporter Partnerships: Equitable profit-sharing models ensure farmers benefit alongside exporters.
Vietnam’s record $5.5B in coffee exports marks a proud achievement but also a pivotal crossroads. The path forward lies in sustainability, innovation, and moving up the value chain. Exporters who embrace digitalization, sustainability, and product diversification will secure Vietnam’s position as not just the world’s largest robusta exporter—but a leading innovator in global coffee.